EUR/USD 19 Nov 2009

Daily Chart:

Bias for the day: Short

Reasons: AO+Stoch histogram Red

Hourly Chart:

Signal achieved when:

1) Trendline broke

2) 6/23sma cross down

3) SAR above

4) Broke immediate support level

5min Chart:

1) Price made a double top and stoch divergence in overbought zone

2) SAR above

Entry price: 1.4908

SL: 1.4937 (25pips)

TP: 1.4858 (50pips)

Total: +50pips

AUDUSD on 17 Nov 2009

Step 1: Establish Daily Bias : DOWN

Daily chart

Although price is above 10sma and 40sma, my bias for the day is short for the following reasons:

1. AO turned red
2. RSI divergence
3. AO divergence
4. Stochastich histogram made a lower bar than the previous

Although we are expecting a retracement, the overall trend is still UP. Therefore, shorting this pair must be taken with care having a small Stop loss and conservative Target Profit

Step 2: Entry Signal

1 Hour

Entry Signal was achieved for the following reason:

1. 6sma cross 23 sma down
2. Parabolic SAR above
3. Trendline was broken
4. We now wait for price to go near the 6sma or 23sma before looking for an entry trigger
   

Step 3: Entry Trigger

5 min

After the 6/23sma cross and price starts to approach the 6sma and 23sma we now look for a trigger. Trigger is met based on the following conditions:

1. Price retraced to 38% fibonacci retracement level
2. A bearish engulfing pattern is form
3. A new Parabolic SAR is form on the top
4. Stochastics crossed and starts moving out of the overbought zone.

Entry: 0.9342
SL: 0.9362 (20 pips)
TP: 0.9282 (60 pips)

Results: +57 pips (60pips-3pips spread)

USDCHF 8 Oct 2009

Daily



Today I'd be looking to short this pair.

Stoch - Red
AO - Red
Below all 3 moving averages

Hourly

Hourly shows a bounce off 61.8% fibs if drawn from 4h chart.

Price must break the trendline for an entry.

6/23 sma crossed
MACD down
Price has broken trendline.
Entered at 1.0281
SL - 20pips
TP - 40pips at previous low

GBP/USD 2nd Oct 2009 - Entry

Today was a wasted day.. as I did not stick to my plan.

Mistake made:
Was expecting price to go back to the 23sma for a test and look out for a reversal pattern there but I got impatient and entered too early at 1.5908 with a 30pip stop loss and I got stopped out.

IF I STUCK TO MY PLAN

Then the following would be the correct entry:
1) Price tested 23sma on the 1hr chart
2) 5min showed a long rejection followed by a Dark Cloud Cover pattern.
3) Entry would be the close of the Dark Cloud Cover candle.
4) As of 19:00 singapore time, it would be a 70+pips profit.
5) However I am expecting TP to be at 1.5770. However, I am not re-entering the market as there is NFP at 20:30 singapore time.

GBP/USD Analysis for 2nd Oct 2009

Daily


Stoch histogram: Red
AO:Red
MACD: Still down
#note of caution: Stoch histogram going up, hence downtrend may not last

4H


1) 4h chart shows 50% retracement
2) MACD starting to turn down
3) Broke flag.

Hourly

Early hours of the market today shows that price has already broken the flag as seen on 4h chart.
I'm expecting price to go up to near the Daily Pivot area around 1.5967 which is near the 23sma before heading down.

EUR/USD 1st OCT 2009 Entry

Ok we have an entry at 15:40 Singapore time.

As predicted, price broke the flag and retraced back around to the 23ema area.

Zooming into the 5min chart, we can see that price retraced to 61.8% fibs which happens to be a 00 level.

Entry was taken at 1.4592 with a stop loss of 1.4612 (20pips). And using fib expansion, TP @ 1.4532 (60pips)

Entry criteria:

1) Broke flag and retraced

2) Retraced to 61.8% fibs + 00 level on 5min chart

3) Doji candle at that level on 5min chart

Exit criteria:

1) 20pips stop loss

2) Fib expansion of 61.8%

Total: +60pips

EUR/USD on 1st OCT 2009

Analysis:

DAILY

Looking at the daily chart for today, I'd be looking to short this pair.

Reason:
1) AC is red
2) Stoch is red
3) Parabolic SAR on top

4) MACD crossed down

#Note of caution
5) Price in between 10SMA and 50SMA with a 200+pips gap
6) price is above 200SMA. Hence TP should not be more than the 50SMA on the safe side.

HOURLY

Forecasting entry:

- Fibs are drawn from 4h chart using the previous high to recent low. Fibs had tested 61.8% area and heading down.

- As this retracement flag is more obvious on the higher timeframe (4h), lets draw a trendline to determine the flag

- At this point, 6/23ema is about to cross. However it hasn't break the trendline yet.

- Hence let's wait for the following to occur:

(a) 6/23 cross

(b) Break trendline

(c) Retrace back to 23ema

Afterwhich, we wait for a reversal candle to short.

Continuation on the 4 Majors on 14-15 July 2008

Generally, by looking at the daily chart (which I'm too lazy to post) -

EUR/USD - Uptrend
GBP/USD - Uptrend
USD/CHF - Downtrend
USD/JPY - Downtrend

So I'm looking at a reversal after the retracements for all 4 majors on the Hourly Charts.

Not gonna go much into details, basically the criterias for all are the same:
1) Fibo retracement
2) Signs of reversal at around either 50% or 61.8% + candlestick patterns
3) 6SMA and 23 SMA cross
4) Parabolic SAR below for Long, above for short.

Here are the charts.
EUR/USD

GBP/USD

USD/CHF

USD/JPY


Profit/Loss:
EURUSD + 80pips
GBPUSD + 90pips
USDCHF + 70pips
USDJPY + 60pips

Total + 300pips

EUR/USD on 11th July 2008

Analysis:Looking at the daily chart for today, I'd be looking to short this pair.
Reason:
1) AC is green
2) Stoch is green
3) Parabolic SAR on bottom
4) Above 200EMA


On the hourly chart, criteria for entry:
1) Fibo retracement about 38.1%
2) Parabolic SAR still on bottom
3) 6SMA still above 23SMA
4) Uptrend for today as seen from the daily chart


Entry price: 1.5776
Stop price: 1.5756
Target: 1.5856 (near Weekly R1 pivot)
+80pips

GBP/USD on 7th July 2008

Analysis:
Looking at the daily chart for today, I'd be looking to short this pair.

Reason:

1) AC is red
2) Stoch is red
3) Parabolic SAR on top
4) Below 200EMA
5) Expecting a Fibo Retracement to about 38% - 50% on daily
(see daily chart)

Now let's go into the Hourly chart to pin point an entry.

As you can see from the Hourly Chart, there was a break from the closing wedge.

Hence criteria for entry:

1) Break from closing wedge
2) Parabolic SAR still on top
3) 6SMA still below 23SMA
4) Down trend for today as seen from the daily chart

Entry price: 1.9771
Stop price: 1.9791

Target: 1.9711 (near Daily S2 pivot)

+60pips

Boring week...

Nothing much this week for me... as I don't really feel confident in entering the market since there's non farm payroll on thursday and today's independence day.



Well.. there is a possible setup on the EUR/USD though, not a really confident criteria for me but I've entered a position (which I'm kinda regretting now..)



My entry criteria was:

1) Fibo retracement at 23.6%

2) 6SMA and 23SMA had crossed

3) Parabolic SAR on top.



Here's the chart:


At this current moment I'm down 14pips :(

And unfortunately... I got stopped out at 20pips loss.

USD/JPY on 1st Jul 2008

Analysis:

Looking at the daily chart for today, I'd be looking to short this pair.

Reason:
1) AC is red
2) Stoch is red
3) Parabolic SAR still on top
3) Below 200EMA
(see daily chart below)

Now let's go into the Hourly chart to pin point an entry.

I drew a Fibo retracement from the high on 27th June to the low which is on 30th June. The pair somehow went back up to the fibo level of 61.8% which is quite a common scenerio for this pair. And about 10am(Singapore time) this morning, we can see a bearish engulfing closing at that hour. So now I'm just waiting for the 6SMA and 23SMA to cross which it did at about 3pm.

Criteria for entry:
1) Fibo at 61.8%
2) 6SMA crossed the 23SMA
3) Parabolic SAR on top
4) Daily chart indicates a short for today.

Entry Price: 106.75
Stop Loss : 106.95
Target : 106.25 (In between Daily S1 pivot and Weekly S1 pivot)

+50pips

Back from Bangkok

Just came back from my holiday in Bangkok so didn't get a chance to update the blog. I did however, had 3 successful trades during my holiday. Here are the figures (not gonna post the graphs cos too lazy to back track)

26/06/2008 16:00
Long EUR/USD
Entry: 1.5649
Stop : 1.5669
T/P : 1.5719
P/L : +70 pips

27/06/2008 14:08
Short USD/CHF
Entry: 1.0250
Stop : 1.0270
T/P : 1.0200
P/L : +50 pips

27/06/2008 16:24
Long EUR/USD
Entry: 1.5746
Stop : 1.5726
T/P : 1.5806
P/L : -20 pips

30/06/2008 12:49
Short USD/JPY
Entry: 106.10
Stop : 106.30
T/P : 105.60
P/L : +50 pips

Total: +150 pips

USD/JPY on 20th Jun 2008

Analysis:
Since last week, there seems to be a lot of attempt for this pair to test the price around the 107.60 area and finally managed break that price to about 107.40 on the 19th of June. A spinning top was seen on the hourly chart at about 3pm (GMT+8) followed by a large upclose candle the next hour.

So I'm expecting some fibo retracement to probably about 50% - 61.8%. As you can see from the chart, the retracement of 61.8% attempted to test the price around 108.00. And it just can't seem to break that price. So after a few attempts, looks like its giving up steam and that's where it's going south.



Criteria for entry:
1) Fibo at about 108.00 showing strong resistance
2) 6SMA crossed 23SMA
3) Parabolic SAR formed on top of price candle
4) A break out of a small wedge.

Entry price: 107.83
Stop Loss : 108.03
Target Profit: 107.23

+60pips

The Virgin Post

Ok, finally decided to stop procrastinating and start lifting my lazy ass off to start a trading journal.

Well honestly.... I don't really care who reads it.. there's just too many blogs out there for people to read. So this is just my puny little brain talking out load.

Hopefully I can be disciplined enough to keep updating this stuff. I mean I should..afterall my primary purpose is to keep track of the trades that I'm doing.

So yeah... I wanna be a trader. I wanna be a good full time trader, that's my ultimate goal. What kind of trades do I do?

1) I'm into FOREX, yes Forex. For those dudes who never heard of it? I don't even know why you manage to find yourself here.

2) I'm into OPTIONS, yes Stock Options.

Already... let's see how this works out.