EUR/USD on 1st OCT 2009

Analysis:

DAILY

Looking at the daily chart for today, I'd be looking to short this pair.

Reason:
1) AC is red
2) Stoch is red
3) Parabolic SAR on top

4) MACD crossed down

#Note of caution
5) Price in between 10SMA and 50SMA with a 200+pips gap
6) price is above 200SMA. Hence TP should not be more than the 50SMA on the safe side.

HOURLY

Forecasting entry:

- Fibs are drawn from 4h chart using the previous high to recent low. Fibs had tested 61.8% area and heading down.

- As this retracement flag is more obvious on the higher timeframe (4h), lets draw a trendline to determine the flag

- At this point, 6/23ema is about to cross. However it hasn't break the trendline yet.

- Hence let's wait for the following to occur:

(a) 6/23 cross

(b) Break trendline

(c) Retrace back to 23ema

Afterwhich, we wait for a reversal candle to short.