EUR/USD 19 Nov 2009

Daily Chart:

Bias for the day: Short

Reasons: AO+Stoch histogram Red

Hourly Chart:

Signal achieved when:

1) Trendline broke

2) 6/23sma cross down

3) SAR above

4) Broke immediate support level

5min Chart:

1) Price made a double top and stoch divergence in overbought zone

2) SAR above

Entry price: 1.4908

SL: 1.4937 (25pips)

TP: 1.4858 (50pips)

Total: +50pips

AUDUSD on 17 Nov 2009

Step 1: Establish Daily Bias : DOWN

Daily chart

Although price is above 10sma and 40sma, my bias for the day is short for the following reasons:

1. AO turned red
2. RSI divergence
3. AO divergence
4. Stochastich histogram made a lower bar than the previous

Although we are expecting a retracement, the overall trend is still UP. Therefore, shorting this pair must be taken with care having a small Stop loss and conservative Target Profit

Step 2: Entry Signal

1 Hour

Entry Signal was achieved for the following reason:

1. 6sma cross 23 sma down
2. Parabolic SAR above
3. Trendline was broken
4. We now wait for price to go near the 6sma or 23sma before looking for an entry trigger
   

Step 3: Entry Trigger

5 min

After the 6/23sma cross and price starts to approach the 6sma and 23sma we now look for a trigger. Trigger is met based on the following conditions:

1. Price retraced to 38% fibonacci retracement level
2. A bearish engulfing pattern is form
3. A new Parabolic SAR is form on the top
4. Stochastics crossed and starts moving out of the overbought zone.

Entry: 0.9342
SL: 0.9362 (20 pips)
TP: 0.9282 (60 pips)

Results: +57 pips (60pips-3pips spread)

USDCHF 8 Oct 2009

Daily



Today I'd be looking to short this pair.

Stoch - Red
AO - Red
Below all 3 moving averages

Hourly

Hourly shows a bounce off 61.8% fibs if drawn from 4h chart.

Price must break the trendline for an entry.

6/23 sma crossed
MACD down
Price has broken trendline.
Entered at 1.0281
SL - 20pips
TP - 40pips at previous low

GBP/USD 2nd Oct 2009 - Entry

Today was a wasted day.. as I did not stick to my plan.

Mistake made:
Was expecting price to go back to the 23sma for a test and look out for a reversal pattern there but I got impatient and entered too early at 1.5908 with a 30pip stop loss and I got stopped out.

IF I STUCK TO MY PLAN

Then the following would be the correct entry:
1) Price tested 23sma on the 1hr chart
2) 5min showed a long rejection followed by a Dark Cloud Cover pattern.
3) Entry would be the close of the Dark Cloud Cover candle.
4) As of 19:00 singapore time, it would be a 70+pips profit.
5) However I am expecting TP to be at 1.5770. However, I am not re-entering the market as there is NFP at 20:30 singapore time.

GBP/USD Analysis for 2nd Oct 2009

Daily


Stoch histogram: Red
AO:Red
MACD: Still down
#note of caution: Stoch histogram going up, hence downtrend may not last

4H


1) 4h chart shows 50% retracement
2) MACD starting to turn down
3) Broke flag.

Hourly

Early hours of the market today shows that price has already broken the flag as seen on 4h chart.
I'm expecting price to go up to near the Daily Pivot area around 1.5967 which is near the 23sma before heading down.

EUR/USD 1st OCT 2009 Entry

Ok we have an entry at 15:40 Singapore time.

As predicted, price broke the flag and retraced back around to the 23ema area.

Zooming into the 5min chart, we can see that price retraced to 61.8% fibs which happens to be a 00 level.

Entry was taken at 1.4592 with a stop loss of 1.4612 (20pips). And using fib expansion, TP @ 1.4532 (60pips)

Entry criteria:

1) Broke flag and retraced

2) Retraced to 61.8% fibs + 00 level on 5min chart

3) Doji candle at that level on 5min chart

Exit criteria:

1) 20pips stop loss

2) Fib expansion of 61.8%

Total: +60pips

EUR/USD on 1st OCT 2009

Analysis:

DAILY

Looking at the daily chart for today, I'd be looking to short this pair.

Reason:
1) AC is red
2) Stoch is red
3) Parabolic SAR on top

4) MACD crossed down

#Note of caution
5) Price in between 10SMA and 50SMA with a 200+pips gap
6) price is above 200SMA. Hence TP should not be more than the 50SMA on the safe side.

HOURLY

Forecasting entry:

- Fibs are drawn from 4h chart using the previous high to recent low. Fibs had tested 61.8% area and heading down.

- As this retracement flag is more obvious on the higher timeframe (4h), lets draw a trendline to determine the flag

- At this point, 6/23ema is about to cross. However it hasn't break the trendline yet.

- Hence let's wait for the following to occur:

(a) 6/23 cross

(b) Break trendline

(c) Retrace back to 23ema

Afterwhich, we wait for a reversal candle to short.