Continuation on the 4 Majors on 14-15 July 2008

Generally, by looking at the daily chart (which I'm too lazy to post) -

EUR/USD - Uptrend
GBP/USD - Uptrend
USD/CHF - Downtrend
USD/JPY - Downtrend

So I'm looking at a reversal after the retracements for all 4 majors on the Hourly Charts.

Not gonna go much into details, basically the criterias for all are the same:
1) Fibo retracement
2) Signs of reversal at around either 50% or 61.8% + candlestick patterns
3) 6SMA and 23 SMA cross
4) Parabolic SAR below for Long, above for short.

Here are the charts.
EUR/USD

GBP/USD

USD/CHF

USD/JPY


Profit/Loss:
EURUSD + 80pips
GBPUSD + 90pips
USDCHF + 70pips
USDJPY + 60pips

Total + 300pips

EUR/USD on 11th July 2008

Analysis:Looking at the daily chart for today, I'd be looking to short this pair.
Reason:
1) AC is green
2) Stoch is green
3) Parabolic SAR on bottom
4) Above 200EMA


On the hourly chart, criteria for entry:
1) Fibo retracement about 38.1%
2) Parabolic SAR still on bottom
3) 6SMA still above 23SMA
4) Uptrend for today as seen from the daily chart


Entry price: 1.5776
Stop price: 1.5756
Target: 1.5856 (near Weekly R1 pivot)
+80pips

GBP/USD on 7th July 2008

Analysis:
Looking at the daily chart for today, I'd be looking to short this pair.

Reason:

1) AC is red
2) Stoch is red
3) Parabolic SAR on top
4) Below 200EMA
5) Expecting a Fibo Retracement to about 38% - 50% on daily
(see daily chart)

Now let's go into the Hourly chart to pin point an entry.

As you can see from the Hourly Chart, there was a break from the closing wedge.

Hence criteria for entry:

1) Break from closing wedge
2) Parabolic SAR still on top
3) 6SMA still below 23SMA
4) Down trend for today as seen from the daily chart

Entry price: 1.9771
Stop price: 1.9791

Target: 1.9711 (near Daily S2 pivot)

+60pips

Boring week...

Nothing much this week for me... as I don't really feel confident in entering the market since there's non farm payroll on thursday and today's independence day.



Well.. there is a possible setup on the EUR/USD though, not a really confident criteria for me but I've entered a position (which I'm kinda regretting now..)



My entry criteria was:

1) Fibo retracement at 23.6%

2) 6SMA and 23SMA had crossed

3) Parabolic SAR on top.



Here's the chart:


At this current moment I'm down 14pips :(

And unfortunately... I got stopped out at 20pips loss.

USD/JPY on 1st Jul 2008

Analysis:

Looking at the daily chart for today, I'd be looking to short this pair.

Reason:
1) AC is red
2) Stoch is red
3) Parabolic SAR still on top
3) Below 200EMA
(see daily chart below)

Now let's go into the Hourly chart to pin point an entry.

I drew a Fibo retracement from the high on 27th June to the low which is on 30th June. The pair somehow went back up to the fibo level of 61.8% which is quite a common scenerio for this pair. And about 10am(Singapore time) this morning, we can see a bearish engulfing closing at that hour. So now I'm just waiting for the 6SMA and 23SMA to cross which it did at about 3pm.

Criteria for entry:
1) Fibo at 61.8%
2) 6SMA crossed the 23SMA
3) Parabolic SAR on top
4) Daily chart indicates a short for today.

Entry Price: 106.75
Stop Loss : 106.95
Target : 106.25 (In between Daily S1 pivot and Weekly S1 pivot)

+50pips

Back from Bangkok

Just came back from my holiday in Bangkok so didn't get a chance to update the blog. I did however, had 3 successful trades during my holiday. Here are the figures (not gonna post the graphs cos too lazy to back track)

26/06/2008 16:00
Long EUR/USD
Entry: 1.5649
Stop : 1.5669
T/P : 1.5719
P/L : +70 pips

27/06/2008 14:08
Short USD/CHF
Entry: 1.0250
Stop : 1.0270
T/P : 1.0200
P/L : +50 pips

27/06/2008 16:24
Long EUR/USD
Entry: 1.5746
Stop : 1.5726
T/P : 1.5806
P/L : -20 pips

30/06/2008 12:49
Short USD/JPY
Entry: 106.10
Stop : 106.30
T/P : 105.60
P/L : +50 pips

Total: +150 pips